This Halloween, What Are New Jersey Voters Really Afraid Of? More Than Half Say the 2024 Election.
In the latest Rutgers-Eagleton Poll, few state citizens are proud or enthusiastic about politics today and are mostly worried and angry
When asked how the upcoming 2024 presidential election makes them feel, a majority of New Jersey voters express some kind of dread, according to the latest Rutgers-Eagleton Poll.
Fifty-seven percent say something about being anxious (15%), nervous (14%), uneasy (12%), scared (12%) or worried (4%). Eight percent cite being excited, optimistic or hopeful. Another 4% are stressed, and 3% say the election is making them physically ill. Two percent say they feel disappointed and another 2% say they are confused or uncertain.
“Every four years, the end of ‘spooky season’ not only brings Halloween but also the final stretch of the presidential election and the possibility of an October surprise,” said Ashley Koning, an assistant research professor and director of the Eagleton Center for Public Interest Polling (ECPIP) at Rutgers University-New Brunswick. “Perhaps what’s not a surprise this election cycle, however, is just how tense Garden State voters are feeling about this nail-biter of a presidential race, with almost 9 in 10 mentioning some type of negative feeling.”
When asked how often they feel certain emotions because of politics these days, voters in the Garden State are more negative than positive. Forty percent say they “never” feel proud, 40% feel proud “some of the time,” 11% “about half of the time,” 5% “most of the time” and 2% “always.” Likewise, 38% say they are “never” enthusiastic, 36% are enthusiastic “some of the time,” 14% “about half of the time,” 7% “most of the time” and 2% “always.”
On the other hand, 32% of voters are “always” worried about politics these days and another 35% are worried “most of the time”; 13% say they are worried “about half of the time,” 16% “some of the time” and 3% “never.”
Voters express more variance when it comes to feelings of anger: 12% are “always” angry, 29% are angry “most of the time,” 21% “about half of the time” and 29% “some of the time.” Nine percent say they are “never” angry.
Negative emotions are prevalent in politics, but candidates need to be careful that these feelings spur more action than inaction come Election Day.
Jessica Roman
Director of data management and analysis at the Eagleton Center for Public Interest Polling
“Independents – a crucial voting bloc in any election – say they are less often proud and less often enthusiastic about politics these days than their partisan counterparts,” said Jessica Roman, director of data management and analysis at ECPIP. “Yet independents and partisans alike say they are about equally angry almost all the time and, even more so, are almost always worried. Negative emotions are prevalent in politics, but candidates need to be careful that these feelings spur more action than inaction come Election Day.”
When it comes to the personal qualities of the two presidential candidates, voters are more likely to associate “extreme,” “incompetent,” and “emotional” with Republican nominee and former President Donald Trump, while they associate “empathetic” and “trustworthy” with Democratic nominee and current Vice President Kamala Harris. Residents are more split on which candidate they associate with patriotism and strength.
Voters are more than three times as likely to characterize Trump as more “extreme” than Harris – 61% to 18%; 12% say it describes both candidates equally and 5% say it describes neither. Independents are about 2.5 times as likely to attribute this to Trump than Harris, as are nearly 9 in 10 Democrats; even Republicans are split on this trait: 35% assign it to Trump, 33% assign it to Harris and 22% ascribe it to both.
About half of voters associate incompetence with Trump (52%), 32% say it describes Harris better, 9% associate incompetence with both candidates equally and 4% don’t ascribe this trait to either candidate. Independents are somewhat split (42% Trump versus 36% Harris), while 88% of Democrats and 73% of Republicans ascribe it to their party’s opponent.
Voters characterize Harris as more “empathetic” than Trump by a 34-point margin – 53% to 19%. Two percent associate this trait with both candidates and 20% say they don’t associate it with either candidate. Independent voters are three times more likely to say this trait describes Harris better and 31% say neither candidate, while 87% of Democrats say it describes Harris better; 51% of Republicans associate “empathetic” with Trump.
Forty-two percent of voters associate being “trustworthy” with Harris, 24% associate it with Trump, 2% say both equally and 25% say neither. Most independent voters say the trait describes neither candidate, while 27% say Harris and 22% say Trump. Democrats are more likely than Republicans to associate the trait with their respective candidate.
Thirty-six percent of voters associate being “emotional” with Trump, while 23% associate this trait with Harris. Ten percent say they associate being emotional with both candidates and 20% say they don’t associate it with either candidate. Partisans of all stripes are more mixed on this trait than any other, with independents and especially Democrats giving an edge to Trump and Republicans being more split.
Voters are split when it comes to patriotism. Forty percent associate being “patriotic” with Trump, while 37% associate it with Harris; 9% say it describes both equally and 9% ascribe it to neither candidate. Independents give Trump an advantage on this trait (48% versus 23% Harris), while 7 in 10 Democrats and about 8 in 10 Republicans ascribe it to their candidate.
“Patriotism has become a charged concept this election cycle, and the two presidential campaigns are now fighting over who ‘owns’ it,” Koning said. “While Republicans have typically made patriotism their own in recent history, the Harris campaign has strived to rebrand patriotism into a Democratic Party value that disentangles it from the more nationalistic version touted by the opposing side.”
Voters are most split, though, when it comes to strength. Forty percent of voters say “strong” better describes Harris and another 40% say it better describes Trump; 7% say both equally and 10% say neither candidate. Independents give an edge to Trump on this trait (45% to 26%), while three-quarters or more of Democrats and Republicans alike attribute it to their respective candidate.
“Female candidates have traditionally been confronted by the perception that they lack the competence and strength required in politics, while trying to balance empathy and often being seen as too emotional – standards that few male candidates are held to,” said Debra Borie-Holtz, senior survey scholar at ECPIP. “These perceptions are turned on their heads a bit in New Jersey, with Harris holding her own when it comes to these more traditionally masculine leadership qualities and Trump being ascribed what have historically been viewed as more negative, feminine traits.”
Results are from a statewide poll of 1,018 adults contacted through the probability-based Rutgers-Eagleton/SSRS Garden State Panel from Oct. 15 to Oct. 22. The full sample has a margin of error of +/- 4.1 percentage points. The registered voter subsample contains 929 registered voters and has a margin of error of +/- 4.2 percentage points.
