In Governor’s Race, Sherrill Holds Edge Over Ciattarelli With New Jersey Voters, but Gap Narrows on Economic Issues

Enthusiasm is high for both candidates, yet Sherrill is seen as more moderate; half say Trump is a “major factor” in voting choice

NEW BRUNSWICK, N.J. (July 2, 2025) – As the fall campaign season officially kicks off, congresswoman and Democratic nominee for New Jersey governor Mikie Sherrill takes the lead out of the gate and is seen as more trustworthy to handle a number of issues facing the state, according to the latest Rutgers-Eagleton Poll.

But with several months to go, notable numbers of voters haven’t yet made up their minds – and the gaps between Sherrill and former state assemblyman and Republican nominee Jack Ciattarelli are smallest when it comes to some of the most important issues facing New Jersey.

Fifty-one percent say they would vote for Sherrill if the election were being held today, while 31% say they would vote for Ciattarelli; 5% say neither or someone else and 13% are unsure. When leaners are included, 56% go for Sherrill, 35% for Ciattarelli, 3% say neither or someone else and 6% are uncertain.

“Early polling on the governor’s race should serve as a baseline or a barometer of how voters are feeling in the moment – not as some crystal ball predicting the future four months from now,” said Ashley Koning, an assistant research professor and director of the Eagleton Center for Public Interest Polling at Rutgers University-New Brunswick. “A lot can happen between now and November, and we know this gap will very likely narrow in the next several months. We only need to look back to 2021 to see how much a race can change throughout a cycle. Add to this an intense national political landscape that will, once again, surely play a role in the governor’s race here at home. Come November, what will matter is who actually turns out to vote.”

Sherrill’s base has more quickly coalesced around her than Ciattarelli’s: 89% of Democrats (95% with leaners) say they will vote for their party’s nominee, versus 74% of Republicans (79% with leaners) who say the same about theirs. Twice as many Republicans as Democrats are unsure (14% to 7%, respectively). Independents are about one-and-a-half times more likely to go for Sherrill over Ciattarelli right now – 45% to 28% (51% to 34% with leaners), though 20% are undecided at this point (10% with leaners).

President Donald Trump looms large over the race: 52% of voters say he is a “major factor” in their vote for governor and another 18% say he is a “minor” one, while 30% say he isn’t a factor at all. Those likely in Sherrill’s camp are much more prone to say Trump is a “major factor” for them (69% of Democrats, 75% of 2025 Sherrill supporters, 74% of 2024 Kamala Harris voters, and 71% of 2021 Murphy voters) than those who are likely in Ciattarelli’s camp (35% of Republicans, 27% of 2025 Ciattarelli supporters, 31% of 2024 Trump voters, and 23% of 2021 Ciattarelli voters). Nearly half of independents (48%) say Trump is a “major factor” for them, 20% a “minor” one and 32% not a factor at all.

“Trump’s influence appears to be more of a benefit to Sherrill right now, given key groups more likely to support her are also more likely to claim the president is a factor in their vote choice, while those more supportive of Ciattarelli do not,” Koning said. “While Trump’s endorsement may have helped in the primaries, these numbers are an early sign that the endorsement may play differently when it comes to the general.”

Voters on each side have an equal amount of enthusiasm for their respective candidate: 78% of Sherrill voters say they are “very” (30%) or “somewhat” (48%) enthusiastic about Sherrill, while 80% say the same (29% “very,” 51% “somewhat) about Ciattarelli.

Seventy-eight percent say they will “definitely vote” in the November election, while another 15% say they will “probably vote.”

Sherrill performs better than Ciattarelli on a variety of issues, though her edge vanishes on the top issue facing the state. Voters virtually are split on who would better handle taxes in New Jersey: 39% say Sherrill, 34% say Ciattarelli, 14% say neither and 14% are unsure. When it comes to the second biggest problem facing New Jersey, more voters choose Sherrill, with 45% trusting her to handle cost of living and affordability, while 29% say they would trust Ciattarelli more; 13% say neither and 13% are unsure.

On other fiscal issues, voters give Sherrill a slimmer advantage: 42% to 33% Ciattarelli on New Jersey’s economy and jobs and 42% to 32% Ciattarelli on the state budget and government spending; in each case, a quarter either say “neither” would do a better job on these issues or are unsure.

Sherrill is a clear favorite with voters right now on the issues of health care (51% to 24%) and education and schools (50% to 24%), as well as transportation and infrastructure (45% to 29%). Ciattarelli, once again, comes within the margin of error to Sherrill on the issue of crime and safety, however, with 39% saying Sherrill will do a better job, while 37% say Ciattarelli will; 9% say neither and 14% are unsure.

While Democrats and Republicans side with their respective candidates in terms of who would handle each of these issues better, it’s a true toss-up for independents on the economy, taxes, cost of living and affordability and crime and safety. Independents give Sherrill a definite edge when it comes to education and schools (46% to 19%), health care (45% to 16%), and transportation and infrastructure (40% to 23%).

Sherrill is seen as the more moderate candidate between the two and overall seen by a majority of voters as “moderate” to “somewhat liberal.” Twenty-five percent say she is moderate, 35% say somewhat liberal and 16% say “very liberal.” Three percent say she is “somewhat conservative” and 1% say “very conservative.” Nineteen percent are unsure how to classify Sherrill’s ideology.

On the other hand, more than two-thirds of voters view Ciattarelli as conservative ideologically at some level. Thirty-four percent say the Republican nominee is “very conservative,” 34% say “somewhat conservative,” 10% say “moderate,” 4% say “somewhat liberal” and 1% say “very liberal.” Seventeen percent are unsure how to classify Ciattarelli’s ideology.

Sherrill and Ciattarelli have both made large gains in terms of name recognition since April. Fifty percent of voters are now favorable toward Sherrill (up 30 points), while 21% are unfavorable (up 7 points), 17% have no opinion (down 5 points) and 12% don’t know who she is (down 32 points). Thirty-three percent of voters are now favorable toward Ciattarelli (up 15 points), while 42% are unfavorable (up 18 points), 15% have no opinion (down 11 points) and 9% don’t know who he is (down 23 points).

Democrats are more supportive of Sherrill (82%) than Republicans are of Ciattarelli (71% favorable). A plurality of independents are favorable toward Sherrill (43% favorable to 16% unfavorable) but unfavorable toward Ciattarelli (28% favorable to 40% unfavorable).

Results are from a statewide poll of 621 adults contacted through the probability-based Rutgers-Eagleton/SSRS Garden State Panel from June 13 to June 16. The full sample has a margin of error of +/- 5.4 percentage points. The registered voter subsample contains 579 registered voters and has a margin of error of +/- 5.2 percentage points.