New Jerseyans Largely Support Voter ID and Proof of Citizenship, Though Majority Confident Votes Will Be Counted Accurately

Poll finds sharp partisan divides on the matter; Republicans are most supportive of the requirements and least confident that votes will be counted accurately

Majorities of New Jersey residents support requiring photo identification to vote in person and documentary proof of citizenship to register, and are confident that votes will be counted accurately this November, according to the latest Rutgers-Eagleton Poll. 

Opinion on each issue breaks sharply along partisan lines.

The Poll was fielded from Sept. 24 to 27, months after the state’s disclosure this past summer of about 6,600 noncitizen registrations through the Motor Vehicle Commission. It was also in the field before Gov. Mikie Sherrill’s Oct. 7 announcement of roughly 1,100 additional registration records requiring correction or review, along with new audits and procedural changes at the agency.

About 8 in 10 New Jerseyans support requiring a valid New Jersey driver’s license, state identification card, or United States passport to vote in person (63% “strongly support,” 19% “somewhat”), while 17% are opposed (9% “strongly,” 8% “somewhat”).

About 7 in 10 support requiring a document proving United States citizenship, such as a birth certificate or passport, in order to register to vote (51% “strongly,” 20% “somewhat”); 25% are opposed (14% “strongly,” 11% “somewhat”).

Slightly less than three-quarters of New Jerseyans are confident votes cast in person, either during early voting or on Election Day will be counted accurately (40% “very confident,” 34% “somewhat”); 22% are either “not too confident” (15%) or “not at all confident” (7%).

Confidence drops by double digits when it comes to votes by mail: About 6 in 10 residents in this case are confident mail-in ballots will be counted accurately (29% “very,” 30% “somewhat”), while 38% are either “not too confident” (24%) or “not at all confident” (14%).

Regarding who will be casting a vote, 36% of residents are “very confident” that only people who are eligible to vote in New Jersey will be able to cast a ballot, 30% are “somewhat confident,” 20% are “not too confident,” and 11% are not confident at all.

“Majorities would both support these hypothetical voting requirements and are confident about how November’s election will be run, but the intensity behind those two views is not the same,” said Ashley Koning, an assistant research professor and director of the Eagleton Center for Public Interest Polling at Rutgers University-New Brunswick. “Strong support clears the halfway mark on both requirements. Not one of the confidence measures gets there, and those who are confident split almost evenly between ‘very’ and ‘somewhat.’ The support is settled. The confidence is not.”

Partisanship shapes the intensity of that support more than its direction. Ninety-five percent of Republicans “strongly support” a photo identification requirement, compared with 64% of independents and 42% of Democrats. Proof of citizenship follows the same slope: 85% of Republicans, 54% of independents and 27% of Democrats “strongly support” it. Democrats are the only group with a sizable share strongly opposed, at 27% on the citizenship requirement and 19% on photo identification.

The partisan gap on confidence is widest at the “very confident” end. On whether only eligible voters will cast ballots, 59% of Democrats are “very confident,” compared with 28% of independents and 12% of Republicans, while 28% of Republicans are “not at all confident.” 

Mail ballots show the same shape: 47% of Democrats are “very confident” they will be counted accurately, against 24% of independents and 7% of Republicans, and 30% of Republicans are not at all confident. 

In-person voting draws the most confidence from every group, with 58% “very confident” among Democrats (another 27% are “somewhat confident”), 33% among independents (39% “somewhat confident”) and 21% among Republicans (39% “somewhat confident”).

“Republicans are the most emphatic about tightening the rules and the least sure the system is working as it stands,” Koning said. “Ninety-five percent strongly support an identification requirement, and 12% are very confident that only eligible voters will cast ballots. Those two numbers are telling the same story from opposite ends.”

Support for voting requirements tracks closely with doubts about voting accuracy. Among residents who aren’t confident that only eligible voters will cast ballots, 91% support requiring proof of citizenship to register and 79% support it strongly. Among those who are confident, support falls to 63%, with 39% strongly supportive. There is a 28-point difference in support between the confident and not confident groups.

“The registration problems of the past few months have given residents a concrete reason to wonder about the rolls, and that shows up directly in what they want done,” Koning said. “Residents who doubt the rolls are nearly unanimous about proof of citizenship. Residents who trust them still support it, just far less emphatically.”

Black residents are the most confident group, with 58% “very confident” that only eligible voters will cast ballots and 44% “very confident” that mail ballots will be counted accurately, compared with 33% and 28% of white residents, respectively, and 33% and 26% of Hispanic residents. Black residents are also the least likely to be strongly supportive of voter requirements, at 43% for photo identification and 31% for proof of citizenship, compared with 66% and 56% of white residents, respectively, and 67% and 55% of Hispanic residents.

Strong support for a photo identification requirement declines as education rises, from 69% among residents with a high school education or less to 52% among those who have done postgraduate work. Proof of citizenship follows the same slope, from 58% to 42%, respectively. 

Confidence runs the other way: 48% of residents with graduate work are “very confident” in-person votes will be counted accurately, compared with 33% of those with a high school education or less, and 36% versus 24% on mail ballots.

Results are from a statewide poll of 1,004 adults contacted through the probability-based Rutgers-Eagleton/SSRS Garden State Panel from Sept. 24 to Sept. 27. The full sample has a margin of error of +/- 4.1 percentage points.